With Twitter traffic going and alternate IP addresses given to get around the Iranian regime’s Internet blocks, many people are wondering whether it will be possible to ignite an Egyptian style revolution in Iran. The ingredients are for sure there as Iran has a lot of educated youth as well as a whole class of people disenfranchised by the regime. The question remains whether the protests can gain steam and constantly keep regime guessing. The pervading assumption is no. Already now Saeed Valadbaygi’s Facebook Revolutionary road page states:
Some unconfirmed reports indicate “unrest” in front of Tehran University, according to these reports security forces and plain clothes have a visible presence in that area.
Another member of that group concurs. CNN’s correspondent Mitra Mobasherat recently Tweeted that there is already riot police out. This is not a regime that will get caught off guard.Despite the Iranian regime’s brutal and archaic nature, it doesn’t suffer from a lack of technological know-how. One has to remember that the Iranian regime has been able to develop nuclear power and perhaps the means to make a nuclear weapon despite sanction and world condemnation. Ahmadinejad and the mullahs are no Mubarak. They may be repressive, but that is only one part of the comparison.
If there is to be a revolution in Iran it needs to be more than a Twitter and Facebook revolution. While these networks are helpful for organization, the energy will have to be total and relentless.